Austin’s housing market continues to tip in favor of buyers as inventory climbs, pricing softens, and demand indicators fall to new lows.

The Austin real estate market enters late July with persistent signs of oversupply, price corrections, and stagnant buyer engagement. Today’s active listing count sits at 17,856, just 220 below the all-time high set on June 27. This marks a sustained period of elevated inventory levels across the region. A staggering 58.2% of all active listings have experienced at least one price reduction, emphasizing the urgency among sellers to compete for limited buyer attention.

The Activity Index—a critical measure of buyer engagement—has now declined to 19.8%, down from 22.5% last year. This 12.3% year-over-year decline underscores a broader pattern of buyer hesitancy. Compounding this, the Months of Inventory metric has risen to 6.36 months, a 17.5% increase over the same period in 2024. These numbers solidify that Austin’s housing market is no longer in neutral territory; it has tipped definitively into a buyer’s market by historical standards.

New listings from January through July now total 32,712, representing a 3.7% year-over-year increase and sitting 23.6% above the 25-year average. Meanwhile, pending contracts lag at 25,533—down 8.6% from last year and 0.3% below the historical average. The imbalance between new supply and contracting demand is most evident in the new listing-to-pending ratio, currently at 0.62 for the month and 0.67 year-to-date—well below the 25-year average of 0.81. Simply put, more homes are hitting the market than buyers are willing to commit to, and this divergence continues to grow.

Year-to-date, the market has added 7,179 more listings than it has placed under contract. This gap represents a growing inventory surplus that will likely put further downward pressure on prices if absorption doesn’t improve.

Sales activity is also under pressure. Total closed sales from January through July reached 17,898—a 4.7% drop from 2024. While this is still 7.7% above the 25-year average, the quality of this metric depends heavily on market population and agent count. When sales are measured per 100,000 residents, Austin’s current year-to-date sales density stands at 702, which is 20.5% below the long-term average. On a per-agent basis, cumulative sales are 961 per 1,000 agents—24.4% below average—indicating a more competitive and crowded listing environment for agents.

Pricing continues to reflect a market correction. The average sold price now stands at $584,513, down 14.3% from the May 2022 peak of $681,939. The median sold price has corrected even more aggressively, falling to $440,000—a full 20% decline from the previous $550,000 peak. Comparing today’s median price to its value 36 months ago reveals a 14.56% drop, meaning prices are not just down from the peak but are below 3-year trailing benchmarks.

A long-term view puts this correction in perspective. With a 25-year average compound appreciation rate of 4.886%, if $440,000 marks the market bottom, it would take until May 2030 to return to the previous peak of $551,608. This projection assumes consistent historical appreciation moving forward, underscoring the slow recovery curve expected in the current cycle.

Price declines have been particularly sharp in the lower quartile. Homes in the bottom 25th percentile saw a 3.8% annual price decline, while price per square foot dropped 5.13%. Higher-end homes in the top 25th percentile showed slightly more resilience, declining only 1.11% in price and 2.64% per square foot. This suggests affordability constraints are more acute at the entry-level, which is also where buyer sensitivity to interest rates is highest.

On the absorption side, the Sold-to-Active Ratio has dropped to 9.13%, far below the 20% threshold that typically signals a seller's market. This further affirms the current tilt toward buyers and diminished transaction velocity. The Market Flow Score—a normalized measure of transactional momentum—is now at 1.10, which is low on its 0–10 scale, indicating a stagnant market with slow turnover.

Regionally, inventory pressure continues to climb. The city of Austin shows a 36.2% year-over-year increase in Months of Inventory, now sitting at 7.10 months. That is up from 5.21 months just a year ago. In broader context, the year-to-date Months of Inventory across all tracked cities has increased 63% compared to the same time frame last year. This underscores the widespread nature of the supply build-up and its consistent growth across multiple jurisdictions.

These dynamics paint a consistent picture: The market continues to see more homes listed than it sees sold or placed under contract. Buyer urgency remains low, inventory is building, and pricing—particularly in the median and below-median ranges—remains under pressure. Unless absorption increases meaningfully, prices are unlikely to stabilize. For buyers, this presents a unique leverage moment. For sellers, particularly those priced near or above the median, strategic pricing and presentation are essential.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for: July 23, 2025​