The shift is undeniable—Austin’s housing market continues to cool with rising supply, weakened absorption, and sustained pricing pressure. Buyers now hold the edge.

The July 24, 2025 edition of the Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing paints a clear picture of a metro area leaning decisively into buyer territory. While some seasonal upticks are typical in summer, this year’s underlying metrics reveal a more structural rebalancing—driven by growing inventory, a pullback in buyer urgency, and widening gaps between supply and demand.

We begin with inventory. Active residential listings across the Austin metro have climbed to 17,891, just shy of the cycle-high watermark of 18,076 set late last month. This marks a 16.3% increase year-over-year, indicating that the growth in available properties continues to outpace buyer activity. The percentage of listings with at least one price reduction now stands at 58.4%, and in several high-saturation submarkets, that figure exceeds 60%. Cities like Leander (65.1%), Pflugerville (63.3%), and Cedar Park (62.9%) are seeing a steady flood of price cuts—a clear signal that sellers are adjusting to buyer pushback.

The new listing pipeline remains active. Cumulative new listings from January through July have reached 32,884, which is 4.2% higher than the same period last year and 24.2% above the 25-year historical average. But supply alone isn’t the issue—the challenge lies in buyer absorption.

Pending listings in July dropped to 4,380, down 1.5% compared to July 2024. Even more telling, cumulative pending transactions year-to-date total 25,680, which is 8.1% below last year. The annualized New Listing to Pending Ratio has dropped to 0.67—well below the 25-year average of 0.81—underscoring the growing imbalance. On a monthly basis, July posted a 0.63 ratio, making it one of the lowest absorption months of the past two decades.

The Activity Index, which measures the relative pace of market engagement, continues its downward drift. July 2025 closed at 19.7%, down from 22.4% the year before and well below the historical average. This is not just a statistical dip—it’s a signal that urgency has eroded. With interest rates elevated and buyers becoming more price-sensitive, homes are sitting longer, and the urgency to transact is simply not there.

This is further validated by the Months of Inventory metric. July’s reading came in at 6.37 months—up 17.5% year-over-year and well into neutral-to-buyer market territory. The City of Austin specifically is now at 7.0 months of inventory, with suburbs like Liberty Hill, Jarrell, and Marble Falls pushing well beyond 10 months. From a market classification standpoint, nearly every submarket has now tipped into balanced or buyer conditions. The scale of this shift is stark—since January, inventory in Austin has risen 60.8%, and the year-over-year change is up 34.3%.

In terms of actual sales, July recorded 2,705 closed transactions. While that’s not a crash by historical standards, it reflects a broader slowdown when put in context. Year-to-date sales volume is down 4.9% versus 2024. However, it’s still 7.5% above the long-term average, suggesting the market isn’t collapsing—just normalizing. But when adjusted for population and agent count, the slowdown becomes more pronounced. Sales per 100,000 residents are down 20.6% from the historical average, and sales per 1,000 Realtors are down 24.5%. In other words, more agents are chasing fewer deals in a softened demand environment.

Price trends continue to reflect the broader cooling. The average sold price for July is $585,225, marking a 14.2% drop from the May 2022 peak of $681,939. Median sold prices are even more impacted, currently sitting at $440,000—down 20% from the $550,000 peak. Median prices are also down 14.56% from the same point three years ago. This is a meaningful correction that has returned prices closer to trend, and while average prices are being held aloft by a few luxury outliers, the typical buyer is facing a notably more affordable market.

High-end versus entry-level segments are also showing different price behaviors. Year-over-year, the bottom quartile of sales has seen a 3.28% median price decline and a 5.22% drop in price per square foot. In contrast, the top quartile declined by only 1.07% in price and 3.46% in $/sqft. This suggests luxury sellers are still commanding a premium relative to value buyers, but both ends of the market are under pressure.

The Sold-to-Active ratio sits at 9.71%, well below the historical average of 31.83%. This key liquidity indicator reflects a sluggish market. With fewer than 10% of listings converting to sales, sellers are finding it harder to secure contracts, and buyers are increasingly able to negotiate terms and pricing.

Lastly, the Market Flow Score—a composite metric designed to capture the overall momentum of the market—has collapsed to 1.12, dramatically under the 25-year average of 6.59. This reading confirms what the individual data points show: the Austin housing market is moving slower, favoring buyers, and still finding a post-pandemic equilibrium.

Looking forward, Team Price Real Estate’s projection model provides a helpful anchor. Assuming the median sold price of $440,000 represents a market bottom, and the long-term compound appreciation rate of 4.886% holds true, it would take approximately 59 months—or until May 2030—for prices to return to the previous peak of $551,608. This timeline reinforces the point that the market isn’t likely to rebound sharply in the short term. Recovery will take time, and price appreciation will need to follow organic demand growth—not artificial scarcity or speculative frenzy.

In summary, July 24, 2025 confirms that Austin is no longer in a post-COVID hangover—it’s in a full market reset. Inventory is high, absorption is lagging, prices have corrected meaningfully, and market velocity has slowed to a crawl. This is a market where buyers regain leverage and sellers must rethink pricing, presentation, and patience.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for: July 24, 2025.